PRODUCER’S PERSPECTIVE Ken Davenport, Broadway Producer, Off-Broadway, Theater

How is Tony Voter turnout?

During my years an Assistant Company Manager on shows like Ragtime, managing Tony Voters was my job.  

It's a pretty stress-filled process, as you can imagine.  You have to reserve hundreds of great seats with the box office (another reason it's hard to get a good seat to a show), send out invitations, take the orders when the voters call/fax/email, change the orders when the voters call/fax/email again, place the orders, make sure certain voters aren't sitting next to certain voters, etc.  

And you have to answer the calls from the Producers who want to know how it's going.  My former boss, the recently convicted Garth Drabinsky, used to call me daily. I'd have to give him the # of orders that I took that day, the total voter turnout, and the "mood" of the voters as well.  

Obsessive?  Yes.  Justified.  You bet.  (Garth thought that if he could get more people to see Ragtime, he could defeat the hype and spectacle of The Lion King, playing across the street.)

There are only 805 Tony Voters out there, and despite popular belief, our voter turnout is not like the turnout in Malta.  I remember working on my first show and being shocked at the number of voters that failed to exercise their right to vote (never mind get free tickets).  

So, I took an unofficial "back-alley" poll of a few of the Tony nominated shows from this past season.  The turnout for the shows that I polled ranged from as low as about 35% to as high as about 80%.  And yes, as you can imagine, the shows with the higher turnout did better on the big day.  Average for all of them in my poll?  About 60%.

60% of 805 is only 483 voters. 

Garth was right to obsess about the turnout.  483 bodies casting votes isn't a lot, when you thing about it. You add another 75 to that number, and you can have a much different result.

I guess that's why Garth made me call all of the voters that hadn't made a reservation 4 weeks after the invitations were out.

High turnout is essential for every show (especially the underdogs), but it's also essential for our industry (and for our country).  Individual shows should do everything they can to encourage actual turnout (as opposed to Iran-type turnout), as should The League.  

And maybe we should consider taking away voting rights for those that haven't voted in several years.  

It shouldn't be a luxury. It should be a duty.

A Tony Award that's not special enough anymore.

Nine years ago, the Tony Awards debuted a new award for Special Theatrical Event, to honor those shows that were slipping between the categorical cracks (like Contact in 2000, which won Best Musical, much to the shock of its own creators, who said so in their acceptance speech).

Earlier this week, the Tony Awards dropped it.

And everyone I know is wondering why.

The good money (and mine) points to the lack of consistent nominees in the category.  In the first year, there was only one nominee, and in three of the last nine years, there was no award given.

Could it also have been pressure to eliminate an award to slim down the telecast, allowing more time for the "creative awards"?  Could it be that the voters weren't attending these special shows (how many actually saw Soul of Shaolin)?

Whatever the reason, I'm going to miss the category.  Sure, I'll agree, if you can't even find one nominee 33% of the time, then obviously the category is a little thin.

But still . . . if we didn't have that category, then Elaine Stritch probably wouldn't have won a Tony Award.  And neither would Billy Crystal.  And Def Poetry Jam too. 

And Will Ferrell wouldn't even have been nominated (and therefore probably would have never showed up).

Despite the lack of a plethora of nominees, the category seemed to be working for me.  There were some tight races.  There were some emotional victories. 

And most importantly, there were some excellent performances and productions that deserved to be honored.

It will be a shame if the next Billy Crystal of Poetry Jam isn't.

The winners of my Tony Pool announced!

Alright, you've waited long enough!  The winners of my Tony Pool are . . .

GRAND PRIZE WINNER of a $500 Amex Gift Card:  David R. from Miami, FL

FIRST PRIZE WINNER of a $200 Amex Gift Card:  David S. from Hillsborough, NJ

SECOND PRIZE WINNER of a $50 Amex Gift card:  Beth B. from Monona, WI

Congratulations to the Davids and Beth!  Your cards and my book are on their way.

For the rest of you, there's always THIS year, as the next Tony season is already underway!  

I also have to say . . . I love the fact that all of the winners are from OUTSIDE of New York City.  And us Manhattanites think we're so smart!

How did I do in picking the winners of The Tony Awards?

There were 27 awards given away on Sunday night.  I got 6.5 wrong (that dang tie for orchestrations threw everyone for a loop) for a score of 76%.

No honor roll for me this year!  

Here's what I missed and why:

THE FEATURES

I got a disastrous three of the four featured categories wrong.  The only one I got right was Angela, and something tells me the defensive lineman for the Chicago Bears could have called that one (at least I did call the standing ovation).  In hindsight, there was a lot of love shown to people with strong theatrical careers.  There's not a person in the biz who doesn't love Greg Jbara.  Karen Olivo has had two strong performances in two strong shows, two years in a row (and she was against a brit).  And as Roger Robinson said in his speech, it took him over 40 years to get to that stage.  Voters love to not only reward greatness, but also to reward those who have been great many times (I'd put money on Raul Esparza winning whatever he is up for next, for that reason alone).

THE DESIGNERS

I'm going to have to start paying closer attention to those designers next year, especially in the play category.  I got three of the four design awards for PLAYS wrong (I hit all the musicals right on).  I should have known that Mary Stuart would have won for costumes (period costumes for Queens are a shoe-in, pun intended).  But the other two I missed, lighting design and sound design, seemed to not only be an acknowledgement of the great work by the designers, but they also seemed to be a nod the plays themselves (Equus and Joe Turner's), since they weren't going to be recognized in any of the bigger categories.

You know what I should have done? I should have cheated!  I should have looked at how the majority of you voted in my Tony Pool because, for the 2nd year in a row, the majority kicked butt.

When lumping all of your votes together, and looking at the nominees with the highest percentage of votes, you all picked the winners in all but ONE category!  You missed sound design and went with Equus instead of Exit The King (come on, even I got that one right!).

The winners of the pool and the $500 will be announced tomorrow!!!     

My Top 5 Tony Moments from Last Night's Telecast

In no particular order, here are my top 5 favorite nuggets from last night's Tony Awards Ceremony:

1.  The "Is He Ok" Moment

Not sure what the cameras caught, but Bret Michaels of Poison took a little too much time on his exit after his rockin' opening number . . . and caught an incoming drop in the head.  It knocked his cowboy hat right off his head, and the hat stayed on stage for several minutes as a reminder of the carnage we had all witnessed.  

2.  The "Did You Forget Something" Moment

Did anyone else notice that Liza didn't have an envelope when she went out to announce the winner of Best Musical?  Why do I get nervous every time I see her do anything? 

3.  The "When Did They Write That" Moment

Kudos to the writers for drafting that clever closing number while the show was going on.  Ok, I'm sure they wrote some stuff in advance, but, nevertheless, it's always great to go out with a few laughs.  And there were some doozies in there.

4.  The "You talk.  No, you talk.  No, you talk" Moment

Watching and waiting for one of the Billys to speak after they won their historic award was some of the finest silence on television.  Those kids are a living example of, "They don't even have to do anything.  They just have to stand there." 

5.  The "I Made A Big Star Blush" Moment

Hugh Jackman made Sarah Jessica Parker blush years ago when he got her involved with a Boy From Oz number.  This year, it was Gavin Creel all up in Anne Hathaway's bizness during the Hair number, and when he crawled off her, she buckled over with laughter and let out a big smile like she was a 12 year old girl at a combination Miley Cyrus/Justin Timberlake concert . . . with backstage passes.  And guess who showed up at the Hair party later on . . .

I had a lot of favorite moments from last night's ceremony.  Overall, I thought it was a terrific show (although from what I "hear", there were a ton of sound problems that we didn't experience at the show itself).  How do I judge it?  Well, I think back to when I was a teenager and used to watch (and tape) the Tonys from my small hometown in Massachusetts, which seemed thousands of miles away from Broadway.  If I think "the kid inside" would have liked the show, then I give it a thumbs up. 

And this year, the 16 year old had a blast and would have played it over and over again on his VCR.

I'll have the results of the Tony pool soon. Stay tuned. 

And tomorrow I'll tell you how I did in my predictions, and where and why I went wrong.

What did you think of last night's Tony Awards?  Comment below.

LAST CHANCE TO PLAY MY TONY POOL! WIN $500!

Today's the last day to play!

Play here.  

My Tony Award Predictions

Ok, here they are, as promised:  my predicts for what the 800 or so Tony Voters will select as the winners of this year’s Tony Awards.  To clarify, this is not what I think should win, nor is it what I necessarily voted for myself, but rather this is who I expect to be standing on that stage on Sunday night.

Drumroll, puhleeze.

BEST PLAY:  GOD OF CARNAGE

The French can be snooty and smelly, but neither of those adjectives apply to French writer Yasmine Reza or her work of "Art."  Her star-studded, super-grossing ($900k for a play?), smart yet accessible comedy (complete with barf jokes) will win out over the primary competition, Labute's reasons to be pretty.

BEST MUSICAL:  BILLY ELLIOT

The Best Musical landscape is similar to Best Play.  Another import, this one British, squares off against a smaller, perhaps more challenging, American musical, Next to Normal.  Unfortunately for all you patriots out there, the British and Billy will take the big prize of the evening.  And seeing the 147 kids in the show storm the stage at the end will be a sight to see, so stay up!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:  TOM KITT & BRIAN YORKEY, NEXT TO NORMAL

The Americans strike back here, as N2N deservedly picks up the score trophy.  This award also comes with a note from many voters that reads, "Sorry we didn't vote for you for Best Musical.  We loved your show, but . . ."

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:  LEE HALL, BILLY ELLIOT

For awhile, I thought N2N would pull a Urinetown or Falsettos split (and take both score and book while giving up the big prize to a more commercial choice, Millie and Crazy for You, respectively), as the voters like to reward writers of challenging work.  The upset of the night would be if the voters tipped their hat to Hunter Bell and the TOS crew with an award.  But frankly, I just don't think enough of them saw the show last fall to make that happen. 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:  THE NORMAN CONQUESTS

Great revivals were like foreclosures this year . . . on every block!  (Too soon?)  This category would have been even tougher to pick, had the nominators not forgotten about some of the fall shows (specifically, The Seagull).  Norman gets the girl in this category, partly for its great production, and partly because of the degree of difficulty in staging three British comedies and running them in rep  (I'd also bet that a bunch of voters voted for Norman while only seeing one of the plays.)

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:  HAIR

The Most Improved Show award goes to Hair this year.  Luckily, West Side doesn't need it with its Wicked-like grosses (it's a revival!).

BEST SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT:  LIZA'S AT THE PALACE

Obviously, I'm praying that I'm wrong with this one.  Will's got a chance, thanks to the phenomenal success of the run and because it's fresh in everyone's memory.  But a Hollywood A-lister bringing down Broadway royalty seems like a long shot to me, so I'm putting my money on the safe bet. That's ok.  I'm still happy having put my investors money on the other guy.  :-)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN  A PLAY:  GEOFFREY RUSH, EXIT THE KING

This is the easiest to call, which is unfortunate for Raul Esparza, who deserves to have a couple of trophies on his mantle.  But God knows, he’ll have more chances to get up on that stage, as I don't see him making an exit anytime soon.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN  A PLAY:  MARCIA GAY HARDEN, GOD OF CARNAGE

There is a 60 second section in God of Carnage where Marcia doesn't utter a word.  But you can practically read her thoughts as if they were written in a bubble above her head.  She wins for that moment alone.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN  A MUSICAL: THE THREE BILLYS, BILLY ELLIOT

Tatum O’Neal, Daisy Eagan , Anna Paquin.  Voters love to give a kid a trophy.  And the only thing better than one kid nominee  . . . is three. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN  A MUSICAL:  ALICE RIPLEY, NEXT TO NORMAL

In an example of the Hollywood Rain Man syndrome (where playing a challenged individual of any type, physical or mental, gives you a boost at award time), Alice will win for her terrific portrayal of the challenged mom in N2N. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN  A PLAY:  JOHN GLOVER, WAITING FOR GODOT

This one could also be called the Best Spitter Award (previous winners would have included Jonathan Groff in Spring Awakening).  John wins for saying the most with the least to actually say.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN  A PLAY:  ANGELA LANSBURY, BLITHE SPIRIT

There is currently only one woman who has won five Tony Awards.  After Sunday, there will be two.  Watch for the standing ovation when Angela takes the stage. 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN  A MUSICAL:  CHRISTOPHER SIEBER, SHREK

The guy is on his knees for the whole show for Shrek’s sake!  

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN  A MUSICAL:  HAYDEN GWYNNE, BILLY ELLIOT

Hayden hits a trifecta here:  Outer Critics, Drama Desk, Tony.  That much momentum can't be stopped.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY:  MATTHEW WARCHUS, GOD OF CARNAGE

For awhile, I thought Matthew's two noms would split his vote, but then I saw I took another look at God's grosses ($900k for a play?), and realized that he would take the Tony on the back of the show's success, and deservedly so.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:  STEPHEN DALDRY, BILLY ELLIOT

For awhile, I was calling a bit of an upset here, because without Diane, Hair would not be the hit it is.  But at the end of the day, I think the majority of voters will give it to Daldry for the sheer magnitude of the work he did in directing Billy.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:  PETER DARLING, BILLY ELLIOT

When dancing is a major part of your plot, you better win choreography!  Hands and toes down, Darling is the winner.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:  MARTIN KOCH, BILLY ELLIOT

Big show + big score = Tony.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY:  DEREK MCCLANE, 33 VARIATIONS

The other nominees in this category are mostly stationery sets, so Derek's "musical" set wins.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:  IAN MACNEIL BILLY ELLIOT

They had to drill a giant hole in the basement of the theater to allow for that house to come up through the ground, like a man from a mine, but it'll earn this man a Tony.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY:  DALE FERGUSON, EXIT THE KING

Whenever Kings and Queens are in a play, the odds for winning a costume award jumps up tremendously.  Normally, I'd say give this one to Mary Stuart, but I'm going with Dale, for the absurdist suit of armor.  

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:  TIM HATLEY, SHREK

Costume awards go to designs that stand out, and in a field of nominations that include one show about the 60s and two shows about the 80s, Shrek certainly stands out.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY:  HUGH VANSTONE, MARY STUART

On Broadway, "rain" is an electrician and a lighting designer's job. It rains in Mary Stuart. And that's cool and memorable. So it'll rain a Tony on Hugh.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSCIAL:  RICK FISHER, BILLY ELLIOT

With the design awards, sometimes bigger is better.  The bigger the show, the bigger the budget, and the more toys the designers have to play with.  In this case, bigger is Billy.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY:  RUSSELL GOLDSMITH, EXIT THE KING

This is a tough one.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I went with the sounds of a dying king.  Creepy.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL:  PAUL ARDITTI, BILLY ELLIOT

Paul will win for excellent work, yes, but also for a syndrome I call, "Tony By Association."  

So that's it!  Make sure you tune in on Sunday to see how I do!  And don't forget to make your picks on my Tony pool!  There is only 2 days left to play and win $500!  Click here.

If you're not following me on Twitter, click here. Just like last year, I'll be tweeting from my $900 seat (yep, that's how it costs - crazy, huh?) and I'll fill you in on everything that's going on from inside Radio City, including the not-suitable for airing, in between commercial breaks stuff.

If you don't yet have a place to watch - try Times Square!  The Tonys will be on the Big Screen!  With the new blocked off streets, it should be fun.  Tweet me from there if you go. I'd love to hear what the party is like.

Oh, one more prediction before I sign off:  during the telecast, I predict there will be two Jeremy Piven jokes.  :-)

Do Tony Nominators and Voters really forget the fall?

No one denies that this has been an extraordinary season on Broadway, considering the economic shite-storm the world has been walking through for the past six months.

With so many great productions and so many great actors on the boards, the potential nominees for this year's Tony Awards were plentiful.  Yet several industry vets are still wondering how a few standout productions and performances were left off the list.

What happened to The Seagull?  And Kristin Scott Thomas?  All My Sons?  Should Equus have been been nominated?  Daniel Radcliffe?  TOS?

As I heard more and more folks ranting about what productions and people were snubbed, I noticed a trend.  Most of the slights were from shows that opened in the Fall.

That begged the question . . . do you stand a better chance of winning a Tony if your show opens in the Spring versus the Fall? (Spring = 1/1 - Tony Cutoff.  Fall = Tony Cutoff - 12/31.)

I dove into IBDB.com and TonyAwards.com to see if there was a seasonal advantage, and here's what I found out. 

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 65% of the winners of the Best Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 60% of the winners of the Best Play Tony opened in the Spring.

Over the past 15 years (the revival categories are only 15 years old) . . .

• 67% of the winners of the Best Revival of a Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 87% of the winners of the Best Revival of a Play Tony opened in the Spring.

On average, that means 70% of the Tony Award winners in these four major categories period were Spring productions.

There's an argument to open when the leaves are coming back on the trees, don't you think?

I know what you're thinking . . . more shows open in the Spring, so of course the Spring produces more winners, right?

Wrong.

Over the past 20 years, 51% of Broadway shows opened in the Fall versus 49% in the Spring!

Now do you believe there's an advantage?

But wait . . . just like on a TV commercial for the slice-o-matic, there's more!

I also looked at the nominees for these awards.  Does opening in the Spring not only give you a better shot at winning, but also a better shot at getting nominated?

Results, please . . . 

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 64% of the nominees for the Best Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 72% of the nominees for the Best Play Tony opened in the Spring.

Over the past 15 years . . .

• 60% of the nominees for the Best Revival of a Musical Tony opened in the Spring.
• 68% of the nominees for the Best Revival of a Play Tony opened in the Spring.

That means 66% of all the Tony Award nominees in these categories were Spring productions.

Shall we give you a another slice-o-matic for the same price?

What about actors and actresses?  Does the time of opening affect the performance awards as well?  Would Kristin and Daniel have been more likely to get nominated if they opened post January 1?

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 62.5% of the winners of the Best Actor/Actress in a Musical Tony were from Spring shows.
• 75% of the winners for the Best Actor/Actress in a Play were from Spring shows.

That's 68.75% of all the top performance Tony Awards given to actors and actresses in Spring productions.

What about nominations?

Over the past 20 years . . . 

• 60% of the nominees for the Best Actor/Actress in a Musical Tony were from Spring shows.
• 71% of the nominees for the Best Actor/Actress in a Play were from Spring shows.

What does all this mean?  And why does it happen?

My conclusion is pretty simple:  nominators and voters are human.  They are subject to the same laws of advertising and marketing that we all are.  Shows that are running and being advertised and in the press and being talked about by their families are just more "top of mind" (the goal of advertisers) than shows that have closed, and haven't had a dime of marketing spent on them in months.  It's not a conscious decision on their part to give a slight advantage to shows that just opened.  It's just what happens . . . and now we have the numbers to prove it.  

Open in the Fall and there is a statistical disadvantage to being part of the Tony club.

- - - - -

Only 16 days left to enter The Producer's Perspective Tony Pool.  You could win $500! 

Play today!  Click here!

Play The Producer's Perspective Tony Pool! Win $500!

Calling all Broadway handicappers!  It's time to put your Tony pickin' skills where your mouth is! 

Will Next to Normal be the Avenue Q of 2009 and send big Billy Elliot back to the mines?  Will Angela Lansbury become only the 2nd woman in history to win 5 Tony Awards?  Will Triumph The Insult Dog be allowed back on the red carpet?

Everyone has an opinion these days, but the only opinions I care about are yours! 

Click here to play the 2nd Annual Producer's Perspective Tony Pool!

For prizes, this year The Producer's Perspective is offering its own version of an Economic Stimulus Package!  Since so many of you have told me that your biggest challenge as a Producer is raising money, I thought I'd give you some!

The blog reader who picks the most winners will win the Grand Prize of a $500 American Express Gift Card.

The 1st runner up will win a $200 American Express Gift Card.

The 2nd runner up will win a $50 American Express Gift Card.

And, all winners will receive a copy of my book.

The rules of the game and the restrictions are all on the site, but a few super important ones:

- Only one entry per reader.  Multiple entries will disqualify all of your entries. 
- In order for us to verify entries, only email subscribers to the blog are eligible.  If you are not an email subscriber, use the box to the left to subscribe now.
- Make sure you fill out ALL of the information on the "Verification Page" of your entry.  Incomplete entries (and there were a few last year) cannot be counted.
- When asked for your email on the "Verification Page", make sure you enter the same email that you use to subscribe to the blog. 

Please read all of the rules carefully on the site before submitting your entry!  Don't forget, you're picking what you think WILL win, not what you want to win. 

The Tony Pool will officially close on Saturday, June 6th at 11:59 PM, so don't wait!  Play today!

Good luck to everyone! 

Click here to enter The Producer's Perspective Tony Pool.

Predicting The Tony Awards . . . where's Gallup when you need them?

Every May, the new Broadway shows battle it out for our big awards and the big bucks that come with them.

In my head, it's like a big Broadway cage match.  

Throw 10-15 shows in a ring and watch them go at it.  The big bullies pull out all the stops and instead of throwing chairs at their opponents, they throw television ads.  Others fight with print, or with direct mailed scripts and CDs to voters.  Some stand by the ropes, waiting for others to get knocked out early, before jumping into the fray.

Millions of dollars are spent on media in May, and it ain't no secret that one of the primary goals of this media push is directed at the voters in attempt to keep the shows 'top of mind' (another reason why Spring shows that are still running have a leg up on the closed Fall shows:  Springers still have ad budgets to get themselves in front of nominators and voters).

When you're a spectactor, it can be fun to watch (on Thursday, I tweeted that I saw 5 commercials for different Broadways in less than 60 minutes, on the same channel).  When you're inside the cage, it can be downright scary, as a wrong move can send you to the canvas prematurely.

Fates can be sealed, tours can be launched, and shows can recoup based on what happens in the four weeks leading up to June 7th.

It reminds me of the month before a big election.

During every election, there are always a zillion polls, led by companies like Gallup, or TV networks, who  call up registered voters, and find out who they are planning on voting for on the big day.

Imagine if there was the equivalent of a Gallup for Broadway.  If an "independent research group" could survey a group of Tony Voters (each show knows exactly who they are) and find out what the voting trends were, a show could, just like a political candidate, change its camaign tactics accordingly.  If a show was so far out of the running that no amount of votes would help, a great deal of money could be saved.  If a show was neck and neck with another, but was trending lower in a certain block of voters, a different strategy could be established.

Unethical?  If it's OK for the most important office on the planet, then I think it's OK for Broadway.  Would the Tony Voters cooperate?  I bet you could find enough of a sample that would (I never expect people to talk to Michael Riedel, but they always do ).  Too small of a sample since there are only 800 voters, and there are always 30-40% at least that don't even see the shows?  There would be a margin of error, that's for sure, but something is better than nothing.

If I could pick only one pet peeve in this biz, it would be this:  we spend too much money without enough information.

It's your job as a Producer to find whatever way you can to gather information that helps you make better decisions . . . so when the final bell rings, you can be one left standing, holding the belt.