Ken Davenport - Opinions from a Broadway Producer

Fun on a Friday: If you had invested in Oklahoma.

I stumbled on an old book about Mssrs Rodgers and Hammerstein today, and found a chapter about the trials and tribulations of getting Oklahoma! off the ground.  It was a tough one to finance, with no stars and a western subject matter.  (Have we seen another cowboy musical since?)

R&H were turned down a ton, despite their previous successes.  The boys were even forced to work what they call in the book, the "penthouse" circuit, visiting the wealthy in their apartments and singing/playing numbers from the show (a custom still done today).  

But finance it they finally did. 

And revolutionize American musical theater they also did.

But what about those reluctant financiers?  And what about all those people that turned it down?

Well, according to this biography, a $20,000 investment in Oklahoma! eventually turned into 6.5 million.  

So, all you folks out there raising money for your shows, the next time you hear, "You can never make money in the theater," remind them about Oklahoma!.

And say, "Sometimes you can not only make money, you can make history." 

(If you're interested in reading more about OK, click here to get the book.  It's an inspiring read.)

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- Come to the 4th Annual Producer's Perspective Social on 12/15!  RSVP today.

- Seminar Alert:  How to Invest in a Broadway Show on 12/10!  Click here for info.

- Win two tickets to see Burning at The New Group.  Click here. 

Self-producing problem? Try our new and improved mini-enhancement.

Confucius say, "Anything that can be done big, can be done small."

Ok, he didn't really say that, but it doesn't make it any less true.  

Case in point.  When big Broadway shows "tryout" at regional theaters around the country before coming in, they are usually produced under what we call "Enhancement Deals".  The Broadway Producers supplement the regional theater's budget with cash, and the regional theater usually takes a royalty for future productions as well.  Honestly, I think it's quite a good deal for the regionals . . . and in recent years . . . it has become too good of a deal.  (Read this blog for my reason's why.)

However, even Confucius would agree that the theory is good.

So, back to the big/small axiom.

As you know, I'm a big advocate of Authors self-producing small productions of their work, if they can't find someone else to produce it for them.  (I'm not sure if you know, but Confucius was actually the first to say, "Just do it," before Nike stole it.)

Three of the complaints I hear the most from Authors embarking on self-production are:  

• Money
• Fear of the production being seen as a vanity project
• Money

While there are many workarounds for both issues (click here to read my thoughts on "Vanity Projects"), here's another one using those Confucius-like words.

If big regional theaters and big Broadway Producers are benefiting from enhancement deals, why not small non-profit theaters and small off-off Broadway Producers/Authors.  In fact, couldn't they benefit more?

There are hundreds of small non-profit theater companies in the metro NYC area.  And I'd bet you $10,000 that most of them would do almost anything for $10,000.  So if you're an Author or a budding Producer, staring at a self-production Equity Showcase budget  of approximately $35,000 . . . couldn't you approach a non-profit theater company and say, "Hey, I've got a play.  If you do it on your season, I'll give you $10,000.  And I'll even give you a piece of it going forward."

Now, that play would still have to be good enough for the NP Artistic Director to take it, and it would have to fit within their mission . . . but isn't this a win-win for both sides?

• Self Producing Author (or Producer) saves thousands and gets show produced under auspices of credible theater.
• Non Profit theater gets infusion of cash and a piece of the project going forward, and a reputation as a launching pad.

Ken says, "Cool."

Any small theater companies out there have examples of successful mini-enhancements?  

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- Come to the 4th Annual Producer's Perspective Social on 12/15!  RSVP today.

Can we Moneyball Broadway?

One of the most popular flicks of the last several weeks has been the Brad Pitt produced, Moneyball, based on the book of the same name.

Simply put, Moneyball is about statistics . . . and how the Oakland A's used complex mathematical formulas to find some of the most undervalued players on the baseball market, in order to put together a team that could challenge the best teams, for 25% of the payroll costs.

Despite a bunch of the old baseball guard rejecting the theory, the A's were so successful that the principles in Moneyball are now used by a bunch of ball clubs across the MLB.

Think we could do it for Broadway?  

It's not as easy, because we just don't get up to bat as much.  Ball players play over 100 games a season, get up to a bat a few times a game at least, and play year after year.  They have a long-term past behavior that can help predict future results.  

It's not as easy for plays and musicals . . . but maybe . . . 

Could we analyze which theaters recoup more shows?  Which writers?  Which actors?  What about the time of year?  Musicals versus plays?  Is there a budgetary sweet spot that gives you an edge?  

I'm not sure we could ever get something as effective at sabermetrics, but there are no doubt a whole bunch of numbers that could help determine what degree of risk you were taking with a show.

Would statistical analysis be the only thing I'd use to make a decision to produce or invest in a show?

Nah.  

Don't get me wrong.  I'm a huge believer in numbers, and I'd be the first one that would support the research of some of my questions above.  But in the business of Broadway, as in sports and the like, the numbers come second . . . and your gut comes first.

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 10 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- Win 2 tickets to see The Blue Flower at Second Stage Off Broadway!  Click here!

 

 

 

Actors produce in Hollywood. Why not on Broadway?

Out there in the hills of Hollywood, it's not uncommon for a movie star to take on the title of Producer, either on his or her own films or on other properties as well.

Look at the current hit Moneyball . . . starring and produced by the one and never lonely, Brad Pitt.

Look at Tom Hanks, who has come a long way since "Bosom Buddies," and is listed on the producing team of Mamma Mia!, among others.

So why don't we see more Broadway stars sitting on stools at Sardi's?

The answer is pretty simple . . . in Hollywood, those Producers aren't responsible for raising the money.

And, of course, in many cases, their Producer title is more about control over their brand, and in other cases, just something else their agents can grab for them in their negotiations.

So, I do get it.

But still . . . wouldn't it be interesting to see Nathan Lane produce a show?  What about Bernadette?  Or Norbert Leo Butz?  These are people with great artistic taste . . . surely they could pick a hit, right?  Or add a perspective to the table that maybe hadn't been heard before?

And surely, their name above the title would sell a few tickets.

I'm not sure how it would work out if a show used the Hollywood model . . . because honestly, I think so many Hollywoodisms are about ego instead of art.  It would obviously depend a lot on the actor and on the piece that they were presenting.

But it's certainly something I'd like to see more of . . . 

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 16 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- Enter The Sunday Giveaway!  Win 2 Tickets to Traces Off-Broadway. Click here!

 

The longest running plays don't get revived.

We often talk about the longest runnings show in Broadway history . . . Phantom, Cats, Les Miz, Chicago . . . but rarely do we talk about the longest running plays.

Why?

Because you wouldn't recognize 'em if we did.  

Here are 10 longest running plays in Broadway history, along with whether or not it has been revived, and the year the last or original production closed.  Make sense?

Here we go.

1. Life with Father, No revivals, 1947
2. Tobacco Road, 3 revivals, 1950
3. Abbie's Irish Rose, 3 revivals 1954
4. Gemini, No revivals, 1981
5. Deathtrap, No revivals, 1982
6. Harvey, No revivals, 1949
7. Born Yesterday, 2 revivals, 2011
8. Mary, Mary, No revivals, 1964
9. The Voice of the Little Turtle, No revivals, 1948
10. Barefoot in the Park, 1 revival, 2006

Interesting, no?  The three longest running plays of all time haven't been on Broadway in well over fifty years . . . and I don't see any one of them coming back anytime soon.  The only two revivals that were produced in this century failed.  And the lack of revivals in the rest suggests a trend contrary to what we're seeing with musicals . . . which is when one works, we'll revive it sooner rather than later (See La Cage, Ragtime, A Chorus Line, etc.)

What's the reason?  

Is it because it's harder to blow the dust off these plays, because dialogue can't be updated as easily as orchestrations and arrangements?  Is it because the play going audience is shrinking, and the musical audience is growing?    Is it because plays need stars to get on these days and no stars want to do these plays?  

It would seem to me that this would be the list Producers would run to to look for revivals . . . yet these titles aren't being touched.  

Plays are different animals than musicals, and what makes a title in one genre successful doesn't run parallel with what makes a title in the other genre successful.

That would be too easy.

When looking for a successful play, revival or not, it's imperative that it resonate with the drama of the day . . . otherwise you'll be on the 10 shortest running show list.

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 27 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- The next Get Your Show Off The Ground seminar is on 9/17.  Only 1 spot left.  Register today!

 

 

Top 5 Broadway myths that need to be debunked.

Quick!  You just got stung on the leg by a jellyfish!  What do you do?

Pretend your limb is a pregnancy test and pee on it, right?  

Wrong.  Pee is not a remedy for a jellyfish sting.  It's just an old wives' tale.  (Actually I think it's more like an old bachelor party tale - because the idea of peeing on someone to cure a sting is only stupid enough for a drunk guy to come up with and another drunk guy to actually do.)

There are lots of false myths out there that, for some reason, get passed on from generation to generation, and many of them are spooky, like "Don't swallow gum because it'll stay in your stomach for 7 years" or "Swimming right after a meal will give you a cramp and send you straight to the bottom."  

Broadway has its own set of myths that are a bit scary in their own right, and don't help us as we continue to market what we do for the next generations.  It's important that all of us do what we can to debunk these myths, in order to improve our rep.

Here are five Broadway myths that I'd like to see forgotten:

1.  Broadway tickets are all expensive.

Broadway tickets are expensive, just like Major League Baseball tickets or concert tickets, etc., especially for the hit shows, best teams, or best bands.  But there are lots of options to get cheaper tickets out there.  You can sit in balconies, bleachers, or upper decks . . . enter lotteries and rush . . . check out TKTS, discount sites, 20at20, TDF, and more.  If you want to see a Broadway show, there's a way to see one cheap. It may take a little effort, and you may not be able to see Book of Mormon, but Broadway tickets are not all expensive.

2.  Broadway investing is a sure-fire way to lose money.

Many Broadway shows make money.  More Broadway shows lose money.  No question that it's a risky investment, but trust me, shows wouldn't keep happening year after year if there wasn't a way for those investors to win and win big.  My data suggests that about 30% of shows make money, which when you compare that to the odds of any startup succeeding in this country, ain't half bad.  And, I'm a believer that if the average is 30%, then with proper due diligence, an investor can turn their own odds into 40-50%.  But it's not putting a "match to your money" as one potential investor once said to me.  I introduced that guy to an investor in Wicked, an investor in Rent, and an investor in A Chorus Line.  He quickly recanted. 

3.  Broadway actors all make big bucks

Broadway actors are the hardest working in the entertainment biz.  Period.  In a cage match of Broadway actors versus screen actors, the Broadway folks would crush their counterparts like tiny little bugs as the screen actors cried out "Where's my trailer?  Where's Craft Services?"  Broadway actors do it 8 times a week (sounds like a t-shirt you'd buy at Spencer Gifts, doesn't it?).  They sing, dance, act.  And while they make a respectable living, and obviously get to do what so many others don't, they aren't walking away with millions.  And remember, their show can close unexpectedly and then they are back in line looking for the next gig.  

4.  Broadway shows are only for old people.

Seeing a Broadway show just isn't on the list of options for what to do on a Friday night for some many twenty-somethings.  But it should be.  American Idiot, Rock of Ages, and Avenue Q all appealed to young folks.  I know, I know, you're saying that most twenty-somethings can't afford these shows.  See Myth #1.  And then ask them how much they'd pay to get into a club.  

5.  Broadway is dying.

There's no question that Broadway faces challenges . . . and more challenges now than ever before, thanks to the internet age, and age of "on demand" entertainment.  But Broadway has survived the radio, the television . . . and we will survive the internet.  As more and more forms of 2D entertainment pop up on your phone, your iPad, your microwave oven . . . the more rare, and therefore, more valuable live 3D entertainment gets.

 

All of the myths above could use some stomping out.  Do what you can do to help today.  When someone says, "Broadway is dead" point them to Book of Mormon.  When someone says, "I can't afford to go see a Broadway show," take them to TKTS or teach them about the lottery.  

And when someone gets stung by a jellyfish, don't pee on their leg . . . unless you really, really don't like them . . . or unless you really, really just have to go.

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 59 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- See DTE Director of Online Marketing, Steven Tartick, talk about social media marketing for Broadway shows (including what we're doing on Godspell) at the Apple Store on 5th Ave TONIGHT, Monday, August 15th at 7PM.  Click here for deets.

 

What if we had a S&P for Broadway?

Here's a biz idea for some budding entrepreneurs out there: create an S&P for Broadway investments; an "official" ratings board that grades investments on the same AAA scale that screwed the financial markets this week.  

I have consultation clients that come to me all the time asking for my "yea/nea" vote on whether they should invest in a show that they've been pitched.  I spend time with the financials, research the show's history, the creative team, etc. and apply all of the tactics I teach in my Broadway investment seminar and then give my consensus. 

But what if there were an independent entity that offered a more formal grading system?  This "S&B" would have a General Manager, a Marketing expert, a Director and maybe a Casting Director on its board, and they'd scrutinize the show in their areas of expertise and offer up a quantitative grade.  If you were considering investing, you'd pay a small fee for the "research report" and its grade.  And then you'd use that info to help make your decision. 

Something that is as artistic as the theater won't be as easy to assign a grade to compared to something like debt.   But it would still be possible.  The margin of error would just be greater.  And you'd still have to use your gut when making that final leap.

But I'd bet that fewer bad investments would be made, which would be beneficial for us all.  The fewer people that lose money on Broadway, the more people there are to put money in shows in the future. 

It wouldn't be easy for those shows that get stamped with a mediocre grade, though.  There'd be some pretty angry producers out there, I'm sure.  Especially since ratings entities like this one could be wrong.  It happens.

Just ask the S&P.  Remember when it gave an AAA rating to mortgage derivatives?  

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 64 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- Enter to win 2 tickets to The Unauthorized Autobiography of Samantha Brown!  Click here.

 

Who won Will It Recoup? Contest and Kindle Winner Announced!

Seems like just yesterday we were all freezing our spotlights off and picking the shows we thought would make money in this year's Will It Recoup!  (If you aren't familiar with our game, click here for the original post). 

While the accounting statements may not be finalized yet, I think it's pretty safe to say that there were three shows out of the ten in the field that recouped:

That Championship Season
Ghetto Klown
The Mother with the Hat

So first, a big congrats to Broadway for the 30% success rate.  Not so bad, in this era of rising costs, wouldn't you say?

And a second congrats to reader Nick Coltone who scored a 100% in this year's contest!  Nick, you gotta start investing and producing shows because you've got an eye for the ones that work.  Just imagine what you could have done if you had some real skin in the game. :-)

Nick, drop me an email, and we'll drop you a Kindle in the mail.

And the rest of you, there's always next year.  Or maybe even this fall.  We're thinking about rolling out a fall version of Will It Recoup. What do you think?

But before we do that, back to the 30% success rate, which is pretty consistent with what the industry says is the average number of shows that recoup per year.

That's actually pretty decent in a high risk industry in my opinion.

But that's not what gets me excited.

If 30% is the average, then doesn't it make sense that with education, research and market analysis, an individual should be able to do better than that?  Doesn't that mean that you should be able to pick winners 40% of the time?  50%?  Or even more?  

I'd bet yes.  

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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FUN STUFF 

- 79 Days to Godspell!  Read the day-by-day account of producing Godspell on Broadway here.

- Win 2 tickets to Hair on Broadway, and tell us what you think about nudity in theater. Click here!

 

Special Saturday Post: A seminar summary.

Our seminar schedule has been all over the map recently, so I wanted to spell it out clearly for you (and for me, frankly, so I know what I'm talking about, and where I'm talking about it!).

So here's the scoop on the upcoming seminars in New York City and other locations:

Get Your Show Off The Ground - New York City

Saturday, June 25th                 
Saturday, September 17th
Saturday, November 19th

Time:  2 - 6PM
Location:  Davenport Studio

Book it!  

Get Your Show Off The Ground - Minneapolis

Sunday, May 15th 

Time:  1 - 3PM
Location:  The Guthrie

Book it!  

Get Your Show Off The Ground - London

Sunday, June 6th

Time:  7 - 10PM
Location:  TBD

Book it!  

Broadway Investing 101 - New York City

Tuesday, May 3rd
Tuesday, May 31st
Tuesday, June 28th
Tuesday, July 26th
Tuesday, August 30th

Time:  6:30 - 8PM
Location:   Davenport Studio

Book it!

Broadway Investing 101 - Minneapolis

Sunday, May 15th

Time:  6:30 - 8PM
Location:  The Guthrie

Book it!

 

To learn more about the seminars, and to book your spot, click here!

Can't make a seminar?  I offer consulting services both in person and on the phone, both to individuals and groups.  Click here.

By pop demand: Broadway Investing 101 Seminar Dates Added

Wowza.  

Ok, I knew there'd be interest in the Broadway Investing seminar I announced yesterday because of the emails I receive asking me about how to invest in Broadway shows, but I never expected the demand to be what it was!

Since the first date is already so close to selling out, I added two more dates in May here in New York City.

The Broadway Investing 101 Seminar will now be held from 6:30 - 8:00 PM on:

Tuesday, April 26th (very limited avail)
Tuesday, May 3rd
Tuesday, May 17th

Grab your ticket today. Click here.

Also, I got an inbox full of requests to do the seminar in other cities around the country as well.  While my schedule isn't going to allow me any special trips in the coming months, I already had plans to head out to LA in the next four weeks, so I 'm going to do two seminars there.  

Here are the details from Broadway Investing 101 in LA, including one NEXT WEEK!

Saturday, April 16th  1:00 - 2:30 PM  - Location TBD
Thursday, April 28th  6:30 - 8 PM L - Location TBD

Get your tickets for both NYC or LA here.

See you there . .  in NYC or LA!

(Oh, one note - the lawyer and accountant are only guaranteed to be in attendance at the 26th seminar.  Since I'm typing this in the wee hours and they are both sleeping, I can't guarantee I can get them for the other dates, but I'll try!)