Ken Davenport - Opinions from a Broadway Producer

Advice from my trainer . . . that strangely also applies to theater.

So, as a person who can't stand the gym unless it involves a basketball, I forced myself to get a personal trainer recently . . . who then forces me to do things I can't stand.  

But so far, so good . . . and yesterday I even got a pearl of wisdom from my exercise task-master who has pectorals the size of throw pillows.

In between my grunts, Pectoral Pillow man said this to me . . . "Ken, you're going to see immediate results.  That's what happens.  If you haven't been training, and then you start, BAM!  (Note from Ken - that's how he talks - in BAMs)  But after that?  That's when the hard work begins.  Because keeping the growth going is the challenge."

Of course, I started thinking about other things in my life that I wanted to better, and I found a very similar pattern.

I like to play chess.  And after reading one book and having a few lessons, my rating went up dramatically.  After that?  Took a lot longer to raise it just a few points.

I started investing in the stock market when I was 23.  And after one seminar and a mag subscription, my picks were better.  After that, it got more challenging.

And then, of course, I got to shows.

Sales for shows are the same.  It's very easy to get a burst of sales activity (improvement) at your announcement, or at the beginning of your sales cycle.  You're new, you've got the most media on your side, and you're learning fast.

We've all seen shows, even some from this season, which have come out of the gate with monster numbers, and then . . . well, some aren't even here anymore.

Want to know how good a marketer is?  Don't judge them at the start.  Judge them by the middle.

Because that's where the real grunting is required.

 

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Forget CDs and MP3s, Broadway needs more Records.

And I'm not talking about the vinyl kind.

Although I'm not a huge football fan, whenever the Patriots are in the post-season, my New England roots kick in, and I find myself cheering my head off for Tom Brady, with a wing in one hand and a Coke-filled cozy in another.  

And while watching the games over the last few weeks, I noticed that those color commentary guys come up with a lot of records.  And they can be records about anything . . . 

• Most TD passes ever thrown in a post-season game.
• Coldest regular season game. 
• Longest punt return by a rookie.

You get the pic.

Some of these Most/Longest/Baldest statistics are a bit much, actually, and are only crunched to give the sportscasters stuff to fill the time.  

But a lot of it is fun, because the NFL knows that people respond to records.  And they make each game unique, and therefore memorable . . . so it stands out from all the others that the viewer may have seen.

And isn't that one of the rules of marketing?

As a Producer, look and see what is unique about your show and let the world know.  Maybe you have the youngest cast on Broadway, or the most ethnically diverse, or maybe one of your songs has the highest note ever sung, or the longest note ever held.  

None of these by itself are going to get you to the Superbowl of Success, but they just may help keep you top of mind, when you don't have much else to talk about.

Go Pats.

 

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What can Broadway learn from the NBA lockout?

If you're a basketball fan, you've been foaming at the mouth and ornery to everyone you know for the past couple o' months, as you've suffered through B-Ball withdrawal thanks to the lockout.

Fear not, however, slam dunks and double-dribbles will return on Christmas day as a present to you all, now that a new 10 year agreement has been reached.

First class labor disputes in sports always catch my eye, because of the major similarity between the two sides of their negotiating table and the two sides of Broadway's table:

• Most of the owners of professional sports teams made money in other industries before getting involved with athletics.  (Sound like a lot of Producers you know?)
• The players are the best in the world at what they do and can't be replaced by others without weakening the product (Sound like a lot of actors/designers/directors/technicians you know?)

The specific causes of this year's lock out stems from the claim of the owners that they were losing $300 million a year.  What's interesting to me is that if you dig deeper and you find out that those losses come from 22 out of the 30 teams.  In other words, 74% of the teams were losing money, while 26% were making money.

Hmmmm . . . It is estimated that 20-30% of Broadway shows make money, and 70-80% lose money.

Coincidence?  Pareto's Principle?   

The owners sought to reduce salaries and salary caps, and after a ton of back and forth and the loss off two months of games, hundreds of jobs and millions of dollars, a settlement was reached . . . but not until the players dissolved their own union so they could be rep'd by individual lawyers and sue the League for an "illegal boycott."

What a mess.

And that's where I hope the similarities between our industries end.  Because no matter who won this dispute or any dispute . . . I can guarantee you who lost . . . The Fans.  And sure, the rabid mouth-foamers aren't going to switch from B-Ball to baseball because a couple of months go by before they get to watch a game.  But those aren't the fans I'd be worried about.  It's the casual fan that they could lose. 

And it's the casual fan we could lose if we ever find ourselves in a situation like the above.

And that's why all sides of our industry need to remember that there are no sides when it comes to our industry's survival. 

 

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Can we Moneyball Broadway?

One of the most popular flicks of the last several weeks has been the Brad Pitt produced, Moneyball, based on the book of the same name.

Simply put, Moneyball is about statistics . . . and how the Oakland A's used complex mathematical formulas to find some of the most undervalued players on the baseball market, in order to put together a team that could challenge the best teams, for 25% of the payroll costs.

Despite a bunch of the old baseball guard rejecting the theory, the A's were so successful that the principles in Moneyball are now used by a bunch of ball clubs across the MLB.

Think we could do it for Broadway?  

It's not as easy, because we just don't get up to bat as much.  Ball players play over 100 games a season, get up to a bat a few times a game at least, and play year after year.  They have a long-term past behavior that can help predict future results.  

It's not as easy for plays and musicals . . . but maybe . . . 

Could we analyze which theaters recoup more shows?  Which writers?  Which actors?  What about the time of year?  Musicals versus plays?  Is there a budgetary sweet spot that gives you an edge?  

I'm not sure we could ever get something as effective at sabermetrics, but there are no doubt a whole bunch of numbers that could help determine what degree of risk you were taking with a show.

Would statistical analysis be the only thing I'd use to make a decision to produce or invest in a show?

Nah.  

Don't get me wrong.  I'm a huge believer in numbers, and I'd be the first one that would support the research of some of my questions above.  But in the business of Broadway, as in sports and the like, the numbers come second . . . and your gut comes first.

 

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The Sunday Giveaway: 2 Tickets to Lombardi on Broadway.

If there was a Tony Award for the show this season that brought the most new audience members to the theater, it would be Lombardi.

I can't tell you how many times people said to me last Fall, "Ken, are they really doing a play about football on Broadway?"  

My answer?  "No, they are doing a play about a great man . . . who just happened to coach football."

Lombardi, like the Green Bay Packers themselves, surprised everyone by making it through the winter and well beyond as plays by Mamet and Guare closed around it.  Their breakaway success was partly due to the fantastic job the Producers did in partnering with the NFL.  It's a success story that Lombardi himself would be proud of.

The show is closing on May 22nd, but we've got 2 free tickets for you to see this show before the 4th quarter buzzer goes off.

And here's how you win!

Sports and Broadway have not always gone together, but could Lombardi be the beginning of a new trend?  The Producers of Lombardi are already sheparding a new play about Magic Johnson and Larry Bird to Broadway in 2012.  What sports hero is next?

What sports figure(s) do you want to see a play about?  They can be real or fictional (i.e. Rocky - which was rumored at one point).

Comment below (email subcribers click here) and I'll pick a winner from your ideas!

Good luck!