Ken Davenport - Opinions from a Broadway Producer

This year's Tony Award nominees for Best Musical and Best Play are . . .

Break out the thermometer and the Tylenol because I've got Tony Fever!  

In just one week, all Hellzapoppin will break loose when the 2012 Tony Award nominees are announced live on NY1.

The prognosticators and theatrical handicappers have already started laying odds and placing bets on who is going home with Tony gold on June 12th.  But in order to be up for the trophy, you've got to get nominated.  And what many people forget is that a nomination (or lack thereof) can seal the fate for many a show that is holding onto their grosses, in hopes for the national exposure that a telecast Tony Award mention (or performance) will get them.

So who will be nominated?  

I'm not going to even try to guess who the nominees will be in all the categories. It'd be too much like pin the tail on the Tony.  Instead, I'm going to focus on two of the three awards that actually have an effect on the bottom line, Best Musical and Best Play (the other gross-affecting award is Best Revival of a Musical).

Here are my predictions . . . and remember, this is not who I think should be nominated, but who I think will be nominated:

Best Play

- Jersualeum
- Good People
- War Horse 

And . . .

The fourth spot is always the tough one. I'd bet a pretty penny that the above three are locks. But what about the fourth spot?  Possible contenders in my opinion are Motherf**ker with the Hat, Pitmen Painters and maybe even Brief Encounter.  But when it comes down to it, the Nominators will forget those fall shows and nominate . . .

 - Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo.

 

Best Musical

- Book of Mormon
- The Scottsboro Boys

Those are the two locks in the musical category, and then the field is wiiiiide open. You've got Catch Me If You Can, Priscilla, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Baby It's You, Sister Act, Wonderland, People In The Picture, Elf, Women on the Verge . . . who said the new musical is dead?  

But there are only two spots left!  Who will be "Legally Blonded" this year? (Explanation:  The Nominators tend to slap one commercial enterprise every year by snubbing them for the big award . . . Legally Blonde, Addams Family, Aida.  I was shocked at the Blonde snub, so I turned it into a verb.)

And the third spot goes to . . . .

- Catch Me If You Can.  

A classic, old-fasioned musical with a creative team like Catch Me's will not be overlooked.

 The final and fourth slot?

- Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson

Unfortunately, I think Priscilla, which is next in line for a nod, may be the Blonde of the year.  

Now, I may be wrong about a bunch of these predictions.

But one thing I know for certain . . . if Spider-Man HAD opened this year, there is no way it would be have been nominated amongst this field.  

Hmmmm . . . wait a minute . . . could that have been the reason for the final delay?  Did the Producers of Spider-Man push it to next season in the hope that a bounty of new musicals this season could mean a lack in the next?  Are they hoping that they could actually compete?  Could be, could be . . .

What do you think of my predictions?  Agree?  Disagree?  Who do you think will be nominated in this year's Tony Awards?

 

(Got a comment?  I love 'em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what's on your mind!) 

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Guess what? The Tonys aren't about reaching new audiences.

The Tony Awards ratings dropped a disappointing 8% this year, despite one of our most celebrity-studded presentations ever.  We had Green Day and a NY Jet and more Hollywood stars than the Betty Ford clinic.

So why didn't tons of new viewers tune in and get hooked on showtunes?

Because it's still a three-hour presentation about the very nichey subject of theater.  And if you're not a theater fan, most likely you are not tuning in, I don't care who you dress up in a gown and teach an R&H song to.

Are my football-loving and Budweiser-drinking friends from suburban Massachusetts all of a sudden going to give up three hours of their lives because a NY Jet has a 45-second intro to a musical?

Is the JetBlue pilot who flew me from Tampa to JFK but lives in Houston and has never seen a show in his life gonna feel so compelled to turn on the Tonys just because he loved Sean Hayes's character from Will & Grace?

Or is my Brooklyn-based little brother, who works as a sound engineer mostly in the hip-hop scene (although he has worked a few sessions of Broadway musicals), gonna take time out from mixing beats to watch the number from Fela?

The answer is no, no, and whatever the word for 'No' is in Nigerian.

But don't be depressed.  They were never the audience.  Sure, we'd all love it if millions of viewers turned on CBS just to catch a glimpse of Denzel in a tux, but that's just not what happens.  Do a few more folks tune in because we've got a couple of folks from Glee?  Probably . . . but it's not enough to make any noticeable difference.   

And that fact has never been more noticeable than this year, with the almost double-digit drop in ratings.

But don't be depressed, because IMHO, our mission with the Tony Awards isn't about reaching new audiences (especially since it's not working anyway).

Our marketing mission of the Tony Awards, should be energizing our core audience, the ones that tune in year after year, and to try to excite them so much that they . . . 

• See one more show per year than they usually do.
• Bring a friend to a show who would not have gone on their own.

Pareto's Principle states that 80% of the effects comes from 20% of the causes. Rather than focusing on trying to reach past our 20%, we should focus our efforts (and our awards shows) on that 20%, the faithful who are tuning in.  The show should whip them up into such a Broadway frenzy, that they go out and preach its importance as entertainment louder than the year before.

Because here's what we know:

• Word of Mouth is what sells everything.
• People fall in love with the theater after being introduced to it by someone else.

New audiences don't buy Broadway because they see a clip or a star on a Tony Award show.  They fall for what we do because they are dragged to it by someone else.  I didn't have any clue what I was going to see when my Mom dragged me to Les Miz when I was 16, and I had been involved in the theater since I was 5.  But that performance changed my life.

I had never seen a Tony Awards before then.  

And I've never missed one since.

The Tony Awards beat me to this blog.

The theme of this year's Tony Awards opening number was the current overwhelming number of songs on Broadway stages from the popular musical canon.

Well, dangit, that's what I was going to say!

But it's more than just this year's crop.  While leaving American Idiot a few weeks ago, I walked through Times Square and looked at all the marquees.  Connections to popular music are all over the Great White Way in one way or another.  

Let's look at all the book musicals (in alpha order) currently playing on Broadway and connect the popular dots:

A Little Night Music

Stephen Sondheim is not considered a "popular" composer, but ALNM features his only major pop hit "Send In The Clowns," of the over 800 songs he has written.  It won a Grammy for 'Song of the Year' in 1976.

American Idiot

Composed by punk-rock super-group, Green Day, the album of the same title also won a Grammy for 'Best Rock Album.'

Billy Elliot

Composed by rock superstar (and sometimes Rush Limbaugh supporter), Elton John, who has more Grammys than a retirement home.

Chicago

What do I have to say about this composing team?  How about this:  two words repeated.  "New York, New York."  That popular enough for you?

Come Fly Away

Speaking of NY, NY, Come Fly Away is all pop tunes sung by pop legend, Frankie S.

Everyday Rapture

This bio musical uses pop tunes to tell some of its story.

Fela!

Fela Kuti's tunes may not have been featured on morning radio in this country, but in his homeland, his pioneering sounds were all the popular rage.

Hair

The astrological tune, "The Age of Aquarius," held the #1 spot on the charts for 6 weeks and is listed as the 57th Greatest Song of All Time according to Billboard.

In The Heights

I got nothing on this one, except for the obvious influence of pop music of the time on the score.  So far, that's 8 out of 9 with a direct connection to the pop world.

Jersey Boys

A bio-musical about one of the most popular guy-groups ever, who sold more than 175 million records.

La Cage aux Folles

Not only did "I Am What I Am" rank on the charts, but Herman had a hit with "Hello Dolly" in 1964 when the Louis Armstrong recording knocked The Beatles out of the #1 spot!

Mamma Mia!

The gold-record standard of the jukebox musical still has 'em dancing in the aisles and grossed almost $800 million last week, almost 9 years after its opening.

Mary Poppins

The Sherman Bros have should get an award for having so many awards. Oscars, Grammys, Golden Globes, and more.  Their supercalifragilisticexpialidocious songs have been sung by the masses for years.

Memphis

David Bryan, the composer of Memphis is the keyboard player for a little known band called Bon Jovi.

Million Dollar Quartet

Some of the greatest classic rock tunes, and classic rock characters, are featured in this jukey musical.

Next to Normal

Outside of his musical theater work, Composer Tom Kitt is the founder of The Tom Kitt band, and his work on American Idiot led him to be hired by Green Day to provide arrangements for their latest album, 21st Century Breakdown.

Promises, Promises

Promises Composer Burt Bacharach has written 70 Top 40 hits in his lifetime, including "I Say A Little Prayer For You" and "A House Is Not A Home" which were both integrated into this revival.

Rock of Ages

Mamma Mia but with 80s tunes.

South Pacific

How many covers of songs can a composer/lyricist have?  R&H's tunes were all over the place in their day, and are still used in pop culture today.  

The Addams Family

Like In the Heights, there's no real strong connection to the pop world here.  That makes 18 out of 20 with direct connections to the pop music world.  

The Lion King

Another one by Sir Elton.

The Phantom of The Opera

Andrew Lloyd Webber is like a modern day R&H when it comes to his theater songs becoming standards.  Streisand, Manilow, and Mathis are just a few of the folks that have covered and scored hits with "Memory" alone.

West Side Story

Leonard Bernstein was successful in the popular idiom in another way . . . the classic way.  He grabbed a couple of handfuls of Grammys in his day, including one for Lifetime Achievement.  He wrote for the movies, for shows, for choruses, and more.  His stuff was everywhere.

Wicked

What Andrew Lloyd Webber is to the UK is what Stephen Schwartz is to America.  He is our most popular successful composer, with Grammys and Academy Awards and more, oh my.  "Day by Day" was a Top 40 hit, and he has even written songs for Five For Fighting.

There you have it.  24 musicals on Broadway and 22 of them with direct connections to the world of popular music.  Some looser than others, I'll admit. And some are chicken-egg questions (Did their pop success come from the theater work or vice-versa?).

But my point is not that you need to be a successful pop artist to be a successful Broadway composer.  In many of the cases above, the Broadway success came first.

What I am saying is that the overwhelming lack of degrees of separation between successful Broadway composers and the world of pop music suggest that there may be a characteristic that binds the two.

And that characteristic is melody.

So if you're a composer looking to get a show up on Broadway, you might want to make sure your songs have some similar characteristics to what's on the radio.  I can't tell you how many demos I listen to (or stop listening to) where the composers seem to be after some sort of intelligentsia award, instead of just writing a song that people might enjoy hearing in their car, or while cleaning their room, or while they are finishing a blog at 2:08 AM (Lady Gaga is on in the background on my Sirius radio).

I'm not saying that theater songs have to be Britney-like trite or super-simplistic (God knows Green Day isn't trite, and Elton's stuff is some of the richest musical and lyrical material you'll ever listen to).

But they've all got melody and hooks and songs that people like to sing along to.

And that will put you at the top of charts and the Tony Awards.

And the winner of the Tony Pool is . . .

. . . not me.

I scored a pretty disappointing 18 out of 26 in my own personal Tony Pool this year.  I feel like I should give my iPad back!

But how did you do?  

Well, get this . . . 

In looking at what the majority of you Tony Pool players thought . . . you scored a 23 out of 26!  That's right . . . you are now the best predictors of the Tonys on the planet!  (And two of the awards the aggregate got wrong were design awards).  Next year, all eyes are going to be on what you think is going to win.

Speaking of winning, let's get to the winners of the Pool!

This year, the Producer's Perspective Tony Pool grand prize winner is . . .

Judson R. from Lawrenceville, Georgia, with an almost perfect score of 25 out of 26!  Wowza, Judson!  If I were the NY Times, I'd be calling you for your predictions next year.

Congrats, Judson, you're taking home an iPad!

Our first prize winner of an Amazon Kindle is . . . Neil R., who is also from Georgia (it's a big Tony pickin' state down there, apparently).  Congratulations, Neil!  The Kindle ain't an iPad, but I gotta tell you, it's pretty awesome.

And our second prize of a $50 Amazon.com gift certificate goes to Roberta H. from Oconomowoc, WI.

Unfortunately, no one nabbed the perfect score bonus of $100 bucks.  But since I was prepared to pay that out anyway, I'm going to donate it to one of the great programs at TDF.

But we did need that tie-breaker!  Marian screwed us all with that zero-second speech, so the ties went to the person closest to zero.

Winners, we'll be contacting you about your stuff shortly. Watch that inbox.

Now, who's got predictions for next year's Tonys?  Will Daniel Radcliffe win Best Actor for How To Succeed?  Will Scottsboro Boys win best score?  Will Godspell take the Tony for Best Revival?  :-)

My Top 5 Moments from Last Night's Tony Telecast

Just like last year, here are five of my favorite things from last night's Tony telecast.

1.  Sometimes the best speech is none at all.

Marian Seldes shocked (and scared) the crowd in the most classy way possible, by not saying one word after walking on stage to accept her Tony Award for Lifetime Achievement.  It was a little odd, and a little awesome, all rolled into one legend.  

2.  Neil Patrick who?

Sean Hayes tore up the stage as Annie, Spiderman, and as a straight guy making Kristin Chenoweth weak in the knees with that tongue-down of an opener. He was as good of a host as we could have asked for.  You've been raked through the ridiculous mud over the past couple of months, Sean.  But your gracious talents have made you even sexier to all sexes because of it.  

3.  The straight play mashup.

You gotta give the Tonys some credit.  Every year they try a new way to include the straight plays in the telecast.  This year, it was a pair of starry performers from each play describing the plot to the audience (and if those descriptions were getting awards, then Next Fall would have won hands down), as well as remix mashup of straight play b-roll from all of the plays on Broadway this season.  If you didn't see it, imagine a 17-year-old club kid who also loves straight plays making a three minute tribute to post to his YouTube account.  Was it successful?  I don't know, but the effort deserves some applause.

4.  Watching a Tony Award audience try to clap in rhythm to Green Day.

Having Green Day on the show was like striking Radio City with a lightning bolt. Has there ever been that much pyro on a Tony Awards telecast?  It was awesome, and hopefully it got the younger crowds at home to tune in.  The older crowd that was in the audience at RCMH however, seemed to have a little trouble finding their punk-groove (did you see Michael Douglas trying to get into it with that head bob?).  The issue of this audience not naturally being in tune with this type of music was made much more obvious later, when American Idiot failed to win the Tony.  But thank you Green Day for bringing your passion and your popularity to our stage.  

5.  The Tony for good sports goes to . . 

Bebe and Nathan.  No last names required.  They didn't need to co-present. They didn't need to poke fun at themselves.  They didn't even need to be anywhere near the building.  But they did it all, and once again proved why they are the stars that they are.  This business is going to take us all on a ride.  You'll be up one second, and down the next.  You'll have your face on a billboard, and then you'll be fighting for a bio in a program.  But maintaining a level head about it all is what makes people fall even more in love with what we do.

Other fave moments from the show included the LED wall (less sets, less expenses), Catherine Zeta's acceptance speech, the Matthew Morrison and Lea Michele Glee-fest, and Daniel Radcliffe presenting with the 2-foot-taller Katie Holmes.

Overall, I'm giving the telecast a B+.  An A- would have been easy, if it weren't for the many sound f-ups.  I mean, you found a way to bleep out "MIND F***" from American Idiot's performance, but you can't get the mic to work for others?  

What were your favorite moments from this year's Tony Awards?  

And stay tuned for the announcement of our Producer's Perspective Tony Pool winner tomorrow!  Someone is getting an iPad!  

My Tony predictions and yours revealed.

Can you hear it?

Every year, as Tony Sunday approaches, you can hear the chatter about who's gonna go home with a trophy get louder and louder.  

So let's add to it!

My predictions are always like the odds for the horses running in the Kentucky Derby – they change daily until the event.  And this year, since we have so many neck-and-neck races, picking the winners is harder than ever.  

But I'm going to give it a shot!

I'm also going to reveal what the majority of YOU think is going to win!  Last night we closed our official Producer's Perspective Tony Pool with a record number of players!  We had well into the THOUSANDS of entries!  Woo-woo!  And one of those lucky contestants is going to win an iPad!  

So here goes . . . here are my predictions for this year's Tony Awards, and yours (along with the percentage that made up the majority so you can see how tight the race is).  Remember, these are not "should win" . . . they are "will win" predictions.

Here goes:

1.  Best Sound Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Robert Kaplowitz (Fela!)

Your Prediction:  Robert Kaplowitz (Fela!) - 36.3%

The Sound Design award is one of the newest Tonys we have, so it's even harder to predict what the voters will do.  I'm with you . . . Fela's music was so unique, so its sound had to be as well.

2.  Best Sound Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Acme Sound Partners (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Adam Cork (Enron) - 31.1%

Sorry guys, I don't think enough of the voters saw Enron to make it a winner.  I'm going with what I call 'Tony by Association' and giving the award to Acme for Fences.  The sound at Fences was terrific, but the votes that will put it over the top are for the show as much as they are for the sound.

3.  Best Lighting Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Kevin Adams (American Idiot)

Your Prediction:  Kevin Adams (American Idiot) - 57.3%

The lighting in Idiot is amazing . . . but Adams also benefits from the cool projection designs that voters probably lump into the same category (even though he didn't do them).  And that begs the questions . . . with video and projections a part of more and more shows every year . . . will we see a Projection or Video Design Tony soon?

4.  Best Lighting Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Neil Austin (Red)

Your Prediction:   Neil Austin (Red) - 43.1%

Ironically, I think Neil is going to get this award for the brilliant lack of lighting used in an early scene of this play.  For those of you who haven't seen the show, there is a incredible display of the contrast between theatrical lighting and stark work-light early on that makes you realize just how talented all lighting designers are, and Neil will get a trophy for helping teach us that lesson.

5.  Best Costume Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Matthew Wright (La Cage)

Your Prediction:   Matthew Wright (La Cage) - 69.6%

Making men pretty has a high degree of difficulty and my readers and I agree, that's worth a Tony.

6.  Best Costume Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Catherine Zuber (The Royal Family)

Your Prediction:   Catherine Zuber (The Royal Family) - 43%

When in doubt, go with the period piece.  Zuber's work is always beautiful, and she'll snag another Tony for her work on Family.

7.  Best Scenic Design of a Musical

My Prediction:  Christine Jones (American Idiot)

Your Prediction:  Christine Jones (American Idiot) - 50.1%

When American Idiot was steamrolling into town, I don't think anyone thought it would be cleaning up the design awards, but you and I agree that this'll be the second Tony for the rock opera so far.  But with the strange lack of nominations for Idiot in other categories (Orchestrations anyone?  Direction?), could the design awards be the only awards that Idiot wins?  

8.  Best Scenic Design of a Play

My Prediction:  Christoper Oram (Red)

Your Prediction:  Christopher Oram (Red) - 33.2%

You all weren't so sure about this one, with 33.2% making up the majority.  I'm not sure either.  Part of me wants to say Fences again, but ultimately, I think the title of the play, Red, screams design elements, which will help Chris grab an award for his cool way of putting canvases on stage.

9.  Best Orchestrations

My Prediction:  Daryl Waters and David Bryan (Memphis)

Your Prediction:  Daryl Waters and David Bryan (Memphis) - 42.2%

No contest here.  The only original score grabs the orchestration award.

10.  Best Choreography

My Prediction:  Twyla Tharp (Come Fly Away)

Your Prediction:  Bill T. Jones (Fela!) - 44.2%

Oh, readers, we were seeing eye to eye for so long.  We differ on this one.  This is where I think Tony voters like to spread the love around.  Come Fly Away won't get honored in any other categories on Tony night, so Twyla will be given the category that makes the most sense for the show . . . and she deserves it.  Just how in the heck does she get bodies to move like that anyway?  Don't feel bad for Bill.  His love is coming.  

11.  Best Direction of a Musical

My Prediction:  Bill T. Jones (Fela!)

Your Prediction:  Terry Johnson (La Cage) - 41.9%

Terry did brilliant work in making this production of La Cage stand out not only from the recent revival, but also from all previous productions of the show.  But I think the voters will want to make sure Fela! gets recognized, and this is how they'll do it.

12.  Best Direction of a Play

My Prediction:  Kenny Leon (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Michael Grandage (Red) - 32.8%

For a long time, I was with you all.  I was giving it to Grandage as well, but I flip-flopped and am predicting Leon will have new hardware for his mantle after Sunday night, partly because of the amazing performances in Fences, and partly because of the body of his Wilson work, and the fact that he has never won before. 

13.  Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

My Prediction:  Katie Finneran (Promises, Promises)

Your Prediction:  Katie Finneran (Promises, Promises) - 43.3%

I think we'd all love to see Angela get a 6th award, but how can we not give this one to Katie Finneran? You know how they added songs for this revival that weren't in the original?  After seeing Katie's scene, I couldn't help but wish they had written a new scene for her at the end of the second act!

14.  Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

My Prediction:  Robin de Jesus (La Cage)

Your Prediction:  Bobby Steggert (Ragtime) - 23.2%

Only 1.9% separated three of the nominees in your choices for the winner of this tight category.  While a lot of folks are pulling for Bobby to pull it out, at the end of the day, I just don't think enough voters caught his Younger Brother.  So, I'm going with the scene-stealing de Jesus.

15.  Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

My Prediction:  Scarlett Johansson (A View from the Bridge)

Your Prediction:  Scarlett Johansson (A View from the Bridge) - 36%

Only 36% of you think Scarlett's going to take this one?  I'm shocked, cuz this one is a lock.  Give it to the girl, already.

16.  Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

My Prediction:  Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Eddie Redmayne (Red) - 31.4%

Tough, tough category, but I think Fences will get a hat trick of performance awards on Sunday, with this being the first (see below for the other two).

17.  Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

My Prediction:  Catherine Zeta-Jones (A Little Night Music)

Your Prediction:  Catherine Zeta-Jones (A Little Night Music) - 38.3%

Zeta seems right to me, but there has been a lot of buzz about Montego lately. This could be a big upset, in the style of Idina over co-star Kristin Chenoweth in 2004.  I picked Kristin then, and I'm picking Zeta now, just like you.

18.  Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

My Prediction:  Douglas Hodge (La Cage)

Your Prediction:  Douglas Hodge (La Cage) - 47.7%

The range of how this role is written certainly helped Hodge seal his Tony fate, but he plays every inch of that range to perfection.

19.  Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

My Prediction:  Viola Davis (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Viola Davis (Fences) - 55.3%

Even more of you think Viola is going to win than Denzel!  And she will.

20.  Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

My Prediction:  Denzel Washington (Fences)

Your Prediction:  Denzel Washington (Fences) - 41.5%

What a freekin' category.  Walken, Washington, Law, Schreiber and Molina? Come on.  It's like actor heaven.  I sort of feel these guys should be treated like the President and the Vice President and not be allowed in the same location for too long in case something happens to one or the other.  Despite the competition, Denzel will take the trophy, partly for being snubbed years ago for his performance in Caesar. He has returned, and he kicked acting a$$ in the process.  And the hat trick I spoke of earlier is now complete.

21.  Best Original Score

My Prediction: Fences 

Just kidding, just kidding.  That was a joke.  Sort of like the two play nominations that rounded out this category.

My Prediction

:  David Bryan & Joe DiPietro (

Memphis)

Your Prediction:  David Bryan & Joe DiPietro (

Memphis) - 74.7%

Rumor has it that David Bryan is missing a Bon Jovi concert to be at the awards. I think he picked the right day to play hookey, and so did you.  I can't wait to hear his acceptance speech.

22.  Best Book of a Musical

My Prediction:  Dick Scanlan and Sherie Rene Scott (Everyday Rapture)

Your Prediction:  Joe DiPietro (Memphis) - 41.3%

You've got a point, readers. You've got a point. Memphis is a traditional book musical.  DiPietro is loved by everyone in the biz. But so is Sherie, and I think since DiPietro will have some other trophies to play with after Sunday, this one will surprise everyone and go to Sherie and Dick.

23.  Best Revival of a Play

My Prediction:  Fences

Your Prediction:  Fences - 61%

I hate to see Bridge lose, because I loved it so, but Fences was an event that demands to be rewarded.

24.  Best Revival of a Musical

My Prediction:  La Cage aux Folles

Your Prediction:  La Cage aux Folles - 64.6%

Yet another reason why I wished I would have produced this one is that it's gonna win the Tony.

25.  Best Play

My Prediction:  Red

Your Prediction:  Red - 53%

Tony voters like "smart" plays, and Red qualifies.  It's so smart, it even feels British, doesn't it?  Yet it was written by a guy who grew up in Jersey.  My money is on him bringing that Tony back home to Jersey Monday morning.

26.  Best Musical

My Prediction:  Memphis

Your Prediction:  Memphis - 47.8%

You know what was interesting about your predictions?  47.8% (the majority) picked Memphis.  Second place at 29.6% was NOT American Idiot.  It was Fela!. Idiot came in third at 19.3%.  It seems that no matter how many folks like Idiot, they also don't think it represents the type of musical that gets awarded on Tony night . . .and I have to agree.  Memphis feels like the big Broadway musical that voters like to pin their badge of approval on.  

Well there it is.  Another year of predictions.  I promise I'll let you know the winner of the pool and the iPad by Wednesday of next week at the latest, so stay tuned.  I also promise to give you my score as well, no matter how humiliating.

For those of you who want to play in another pool, make sure you come to my Tony Party on Sunday night.  We're giving away a Nintendo Wii to whomever wins that pool!  Click here to reserve before it's sold out.  

But wherever you are . . . Enjoy Tony night!  And make sure you tell everyone you know to tune in. Let's see what we can do about these ratings, shall we?

Play my Tony pool! Win an iPad!

Woo-woo!  Sharpen your electronic pencils and prepare to pick your winners . . . and maybe you'll be a big winner yourself!

Tony Awards can equal big business for Producers, so being able to determine which shows will take home trophies is something all Producers should practice.

Now we can all practice with the 3rd Annual Producer's Perspective Tony Pool!

If you're new to the blog and didn't play last year, here's how it works: the person who picks the most winners wins!  As simple as an R&H melody!

What do you win?

Here are the prizes:

GRAND PRIZE:  An iPad!

FIRST PRIZE:  A Kindle

SECOND PRIZE:  A $50 Amazon Gift Certificate

This year, I'm also adding a special PERFECT SCORE Bonus of $100 CASH!  If anyone out there picks ALL of the winners, you'll get a bonus 100 bucks.  (I'm dying to give that away so pick carefully!)

To play, click the link here and pick away!

The rules of the game and the restrictions are all on the ballot, but a few super important ones:

- Only one entry per reader.  Multiple entries will disqualify all of your entries.  
 
- In order to verify entries, only email subscribers to the blog are eligible.  If you are not an email subscriber, use the box on the upper left of this page to subscribe now.
 
- Make sure you fill out ALL of the information on the "Verification Page" of your entry.  Incomplete entries (and there were a few last year) cannot be counted.
 
- When asked for your email on the "Verification Page", make sure you enter the same email that you use to subscribe to the blog. 

Please read all of the rules carefully on the site before submitting your entry!  Don't forget, you're picking what you think WILL win, not what you want to win. 

The Tony Pool will officially close on Thursday, June 10th at 11:59 PM, so don't delay, play today!

Good luck to all of you and the nominees!

CLICK HERE TO PLAY THE TONY POOL!

The Top 5 Tony Nomination Surprises.

The 2010 Tony Award Nominations were announced just two-and-a-half hours ago and, as always, they included a few surprises.

Here are my top five head-shakers:   

1.  The season's biggest hit doesn't get a shot at Best Musical.

Poor Addams Family.  On second thought, with their last week's gross topping $1.3 million, I think the last word that we can use in the same sentence as Addams Family is "poor."  However, for the 3rd year in a row, the Tony Nominators snubbed a big, fat (yet original), commercial show that steamrolled into town to less than enthusiastic critical acclaim, but a lot of popular love.  Legally Blonde, 9 To 5 and now The Family.  Honestly, this wasn't much of a surprise.  What was a surprise was that the jukebox-y Million Dollar Quartet took the fourth spot over Come Fly Away . . . and frankly, I'm still surprised at how both of them were considered more of a contender for this slot than Family, considering that Family is more of a traditional musical than both of them combined.  Let's face it . . . the nominators officially like the jukebox musical. They embraced Rock of Ages last year, and this year, MDQ.  

So, Priscilla, Queen of the Desert . . . fear not.  

Two questions come to mind as a result of this surprise:

- Will Addams Family get a number on the show?

- Will their grosses suffer an immediate drop as a result of the snub?

Answers?  

- Yes.  

- And no.   

2.  Stars actually got nominations.     

Sometimes the Tony nominators like to tell Hollywood stars to go back where they came from, by overlooking them for a possible Tony trophy.  Not this year. Denzel Washington (who was overlooked in 2005 for his Caesar), Catherine Zeta-Jones, Liev Schreiber, Scarlett Johansson, Kelsey Grammer, Jude Law, Christopher Walken, Linda Lavin, David Alan Grier, and Sean Hayes all got nods for their work on the boards this year.  (Left off the list were our usual favorites, Kristin Chenoweth, Nathan Lane and Bebe Neuwirth, but their mantles are doing just fine, I'd say).  The fact that the nominations look like the invite list to the Vanity Fair Oscar Party is a good thing.  Most importantly, all of these stars did fantastic work this year and deserve the kudos.  Now let's hope this will go a long way in getting more of their brothers and sisters from the Hollywood Hills to come join us for a "limited time only." 

3.  There are four nominees for best score.

We saw this one coming last week, when the Tony Admin Committee announced that both Enron and Fences would be eligible in the Best Score category.  It was a good move, IMHO, because Shubert Alley had been buzzing about the dearth of original scores this year.  I don't think they need to seat those two scores too close to the podium on award night, but it's nice to see the category rounded out. And the scores are unique, interesting, and definitely deserving of some love.

4.  Sherie Rene Scott owes Megan Mullally a drink.

Six weeks ago, SRS was looking at an uneventful spring.  Then, MM ups and walks from Lips Together, Teeth Apart, and now, SRS has two Tony nominations to keep her busy!  (Interesting side note:  Sherie Rene Scott replaced Megan Mullally in the Rosie O'Donnell Grease that I worked on back in '94).  This surprise story isn't over yet . . . because by my read, SRS has a good shot at taking home a trophy on Tony night.  And all this star-aligning-stuff couldn't happen to a nicer gal.

5.  The British hit about an American company won't be Best Play.

You know what the most difficult translation in the world is?  From English to American and American to English.  You'd think it'd be so much easier to predict what works in each of these markets based on the success in the other.  Alas, it ain't that easy.  Unfortunately, Enron, a British play based on American subject matter, didn't impress the nominators and failed get a Best Play nom.  Nine months ago, I would have bet big on this one not only getting a nomination but also taking home the top prize.  Just goes to show you, you never know what's going to happen until that curtain goes up.

How did I do with my predictions?  I scored a 75% overall, missing one show in each of the three categories I predicted (which, coincidentally is exactly how I scored last year).  

How did you do?

And stay tuned . . . The Producer's Perspective Tony Pool will be announced shortly.  We've just got to figure out what the prizes are going to be . . . 

My predictions for the 2.5 big Tony Award nominations.

It seems like just yesterday we were debating who would get snubbed in the 2008-2009 Tony noms (remember when Rock of Ages slipped in instead of 9 to 5?) . . . And already, it’s time to predict this year’s snubs!  

Conventional Broadway wisdom says that there are only 2.5 Tony Awards that have a meaningful impact at the Box Office:  Best Musical, Best Play . . . and the half goes to Best Revival of a Musical.

So, I’m going to give you my predictions on what I think will be nominated for those 2.5 categories (as opposed to what I think should be nominated).

Best Musical

IMHO, there are three locks for the Best Musical nom this year:

American Idiot
Fela!

And the only completely original musical of the season . . .

Memphis

It’s the fourth slot that there’s some fighting over, especially since this season saw the elimination of the Special Theatrical Event category, which lumps at least four other titles into the Best Musical category.

So who will take the slot?

The two front runners are The Addams Family and Come Fly Away, with Everyday Rapture the next-in-line long shot.  My guess is that the Tony Committee will honor Rapture by nominating it's star for Best Actress and maybe even Best Book, but they'll leave it out of this category, which puts us back with the two choices that started this paragraph.

If I were one of the nominators sitting The Edison Cafe making the decision, I'd go with Addams Family solely to reward the original score and the original book over the beautifully danced, but is-it-really-a-musical, Come Fly Away.  You've got to give some points to Family for degree of difficulty, don't you?

But, knowing what I do about the nominators and the process by which they choose these nominees, my gut says that they will nominate Come Fly Away, and for the third year in a row, snub the big, commercial choice (First Legally Blonde, then 9 To 5, and now Addams Family).  

Best Play

Expect the biggest hit, A Steady Rain, to get a steady snub in this category.  

Red is a shoe-in for a nod.  As is Next Fall.  The next two spots could go a bunch of different ways.  You've got the Brit hit, Enron, Mamet's f'ing Race, and Superior Donuts, the follow-up play by the man who penned the biggest dramatic epic that we've seen since Angels in America.  And what about The Chris Walken show aka Behanding in Spokane, the buzzed about Vibrator Play, or the timely Time Stands Still?  

I'm going with Time for the third slot.  And the fourth?

Tricky again . . . I'd like to say that it will be Donuts . . . but taking into account that nominators tend to forget the Fall (as we found out last year), I'm going to go with Enron (partly because bigger really is sometimes better in the eyes of nominators and voters).

Best Revival of a Musical

Sondheim will get another bday present with a nom for Night Music.  La Cage will get the second slot, and Ragtime will get the thanks-for-trying third nom.

But what about the fourth?  Finian's or Promises?  Great reviewed versus great box office?  Fall versus Spring?

Put my money on Promises. 

- - - - -

Whew.  That was tough.  Thankfully, I'm only picking 2.5 of them.  

The nominators are picking 26, and they'll do it tomorrow.

On Tuesday, at 8:30 AM ET, the nominations will be announced live.  Watch on the web at TonyAwards.com.

But before then, tell me how you think I did with my choices in the comments below.  

What do you think will get nominated?   

The right to vote . . . restored! Kind of.

Last week, a compromise was reached between the Tony Awards and the critical press after almost a year of a very public and tense standoff.

Here's what happened:

On July 14, 2009, the Tonys sent all the reviewers on the "First Night Press List" (those who are invited to see shows on opening night or before) a letter saying that their Tony voter status had been revoked.  An excerpt from the letter stated the following reasons for the change:

Please note that this change in no way affects your inclusion on the First Night Press List. As you know, a committee of Broadway press agents develops and administers the First Night Press List, and it does not fall under the purview of Tony Award Productions, The Broadway League, or the American Theatre Wing.

In making this decision, the Tony Management Committee took into account that members of the First Night Press List will of course continue to have the opportunity to express their critical opinions in reviews and other coverage of the theatre season. In addition, the Management Committee took into consideration the fact that certain publications and individual critics have historically pursued a policy of abstaining from voting on entertainment awards in general, to avoid any possible conflicts of interest in fulfilling their primary responsibilities as journalists."

Ok. Makes sense.  If the Tony Awards don't control the list, you can see why they might be concerned about who is able to cast a ballot.  Can you imagine a co-op board allowing someone to vote for a building amendment if they didn't have a say in who was living in the building?  

But, you can without a doubt see the side of the critics who jumped up and down concerned about the lack of the critical voice in the block of voters.  

All in all, about 100 people's privileges were revoked.  And a lot of those 100 people were very vocal about their displeasure.  

Last week, the Tonys listened.

It was announced on March 25, 2010, less than two months before voting begins, that members of the Drama Critics' Circle, a group that has been around since 1935, a group that has membership guidelines, structure, meetings, executive leadership and their own awards, will be allowed to cast a vote for the Tony Awards.

While this will still leave several of those first nighters without a vote, I think this was a wonderful compromise that allows the Tonys to establish more of a structure to the body of voters, while ensuring that this body is made up of the most diverse group of contributors to our unique world.  

Critics have a place in this world.  And they should have a vote.  I'm now thankful that they do.  
 

Oh, by the way, I would have linked to the Variety article about this subject . . . but they've put their stories behind a e-wall now.  I wonder how that's gonna work out for them. Here's a Theatermania article instead.  

To read more about the Drama Critics' Circle, click here.